Mortgage Market Minute: What goes down must come up, or something like that. MBS prices are headed back up the old roller-coaster track, with the FNMA 4.5% up +.28 to 101.00, the 5.0% up +.22 to 102.06, and the 5.5% up +.16 to 102.56. MBS are being pulled along by a continued flight to safety, as Treasuries are ending up being popular hiding places this morning from a continuation of yesterday’s stock market rout. After hitting a 6-year low yesterday, equities today are plumbing still new depths, off nearly 2% on renewed bank concerns. So it turns out that last November’s stock market bottom wasn’t one. The specter of deflation has at least for now retreated, with the announcement that consumer prices broke their 6-month slide (see post below). B of A and Citi nationalized? Could happen anytime.More global bank concerns - Bank of America is off -15% at $3.25 and Citi is off -20% at about $2. The combined market cap of these once-behemoth corporations is down to an amazingly-low $27B. Looking at the charts for these stocks and hearing the media spin on continued bailouts (after billions and billions already spent) leads this author to predict that the government will nationalize these two firms in the next few weeks (possibly even this weekend)– remember how Fannie/Freddie went? Same playbook. Usually happens over a weekend.Mortgage rates head lower this week.Mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week, said Freddie Mac this morning. The Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending Thursday 2/19 showed that the rate on a 30-year fixed fell from 5.16% last week to 5.04% this week (and 0.7 point, unchanged). The 15-year fixed averaged 4.68% (and 0.6 point) compared to 4.81% (and 0.7 point) in the prior week. The 5-year ARM fell from 5.23% to 5.04% (and 0.6 point). The 1-year ARM slipped from 4.94% (and 0.5 point) down to 4.8% (and 0.5 point) this week.Consumer Price Index rises for first time in six months. As predicted in yesterday’s Mortgage Market Minute, Mr. Inflation is putting on his track shoes, and it appears that the Fed can (at least for now) relax its concerns about deflation. The Labor Department reported today that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose +0.3%, as forecast, marking the first increase in six months.. The core rate, which excludes food and fuel costs, increased +0.2%, driven by an end to falling gasoline prices, automobiles, apparel, and health care. This marks the first increase in six months. Annualized, the CPI was unchanged. Downward pressures on prices still exist, though, as retailers chop prices in response to falling demand. Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist in New York at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., said “Everything is heading in the same direction, which is down. Sales are down, profits are down, prices are coming down.” Treasuries, which had risen earlier in the day, remained higher after the report. Yields on the 10-year note dipped to 2.75% down about 10 basis points from yesterday’s levels. Atlanta Fed President sees recovery in second half of year.Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, speaking in Birmingham, AL, said he expects a recovery by the second half of the year, despite weak credit markets, housing oversupply, and low business and consumer confidence. Lockhart said he was encouraged by lower mortgage interest rates and stronger January sales, but that it was still important to have a comprehensive and coherent policy response by government. "We have reached a pivotal juncture. After a rapid onset of problems in the economy and financial system - both global and national - we've reached a point where incremental responses must proceed to something more comprehensive, scaled, and coherent," Lockhart said. "I believe the composite policy approach is correct in focus and intent, and now the devil is largely in the details and implementation," he continued. Lockhart’s comments appear to be on point, as investors continue to worry about the current lack of details and ineffective implementation of various economic recovery plans.
Diamonds are forever. The problem is, you can’t eat them.DeBeers, the world’s largest diamond company, has just borrowed $500 million from its shareholders in order to survive. Turns out that consumers worldwide prefer the taste of real food over diamonds when the going gets tough.On today’s date: February 20…1839: Congress prohibits dueling in District of Columbia1872: Metropolitan Museum of Art opens in New York City1933: House of Representatives completes congressional action to repeal Prohibition1937: 1st automobile/airplane combination tested, Santa Monica, Ca1943: Allied troops occupy Kasserine pass in Tunisia1962: John Glenn is 1st American to orbit Earth in Friendship 7The last word:“Every day I get up and look through the Forbes list of the richest people in America. If I'm not there, I go to work.” --Robert Orben
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
I hope we are not headed for the roller coaster ride you are speaking of but if housing is any indication you may be right. Yesterday President Obama traveled to Arizona to announce the Housing Recovery Plan.
ReplyDeleteThe plan is clear that it appeals only to homeowners who have one home and are current on their mortgage. Also, the component of the plan allowing Bankruptcy Courts to reduce or restructure owner occupied home mortgages will not take effect until it is passed by congress first.
It is unfortunate that much of this appears to be too little, too late. Also, there will essentially be no help for people with jumbo mortgages and second homes.
The good news is with the increase in the conforming rate limit to $727,000 last week people with no equity will be able to re-finance to lower rates if they can qualify.
Rich Spivey is a REALTOR® with Rodeo Realty in Studio City. Read more about the housing plan and the foreclosure plan at: http://rich4realestate.com/Blog.aspx